Monthly Archives: June 2009

Wednesday’s Radar Play – AMAG

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AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS INC (NASDAQ:AMAG) received an oft-delayed marketing approval for its Feraheme anemia treatment, clearing the way for the biopharmaceutical company to get the product on shelves in the U.S. during the second half of July.

Market Club has a very interesting take on how AMAG is playing out after the past news report. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (AMAG) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues positive longer term. Look for this market to remain firm. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and AMAG insiders.

FREE Trend Analysis for AMAG Heremagnifyingglass

Market Recap

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The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Despite today’s setback, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 923.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 874.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today’s high crossing at 926.00. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 952.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 907.52. Second support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 884.30.

The Dow closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of last week’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Despite today’s decline, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8579 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

If the Dow resumes this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 8221 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 8560. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8579. First support is today’s low crossing at 8393. Second support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 8259.

The NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week’s rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1469.62. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Despite today’s setback, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week’s rally, June’s high crossing at 1516.00 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1492.50. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 1516.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1457.00. Second support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 1421.00.

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FAS is now XLF

Courtesy of Bill Luby at VIX & MORE

For someone who gets a kick out of volatility, the arrival of triple ETFs has been a little bit like manna from heaven. Of course the launch of the Direxion
triple ETFs back in early November just happened to coincide with the
highest VIX readings in history. There is nothing like record
volatility, except perhaps record volatility times three.

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But a lot has changed since November. The VIX traded in the 80s the
month it was launched; today it was as low as 25.02. At the moment the
VIX is exactly 1/3 as high as it was when it peaked in November at
81.38. For those who have been selling options, the ride down the
volatility slide has been an unusually profitable one. In fact, it is
likely that some of the premiums harvested in the last nine months or
so will turn out to be the most bloated we will see in our trading
lifetimes.

My personal interest in the triple ETFs notwithstanding, these
vehicles have received mixed reviews, largely because their suitability
as buy and hold investments degrades rapidly after just one trading
session – with the problems exacerbated by increases in volatility. On
the flip side, the recent decrease in volatility has taken some of the
tracking and compounding errors out of leveraged ETFs. In fact, in the
current environment, the 3x and -3x ETFs are starting to look somewhat
tame relative to their history. The two charts below show the (30 day) historical volatility (purple line) and implied volatility (gold line) of the most popular financial sector ETF, XLF, and the 3x financial sector ETF that has taken the trading world by storm, FAS.
While there are a number of interesting conclusions to be drawn from
these charts, the point I wish to make is that current historical and
implied volatility for FAS (top chart) is hovering around the 100 mark,
which is about where HV and IV were for XLF (bottom chart) in February,
March and April. In other words, the 3x ETF FAS is no more volatile or
has more uncertainty in its stock price now than XLF did during the
period from October through April. Tracking error aside, FAS is now
effectively the ghost of XLF.

FAS

XLF

[source: iVolatility]