Archive for June, 2009
Neah Power Systems, Inc. (NPWS.OB) continues to show very strong support today. There still is no news but we are expecting that a P/R could be released very soon.
Market Club has a very interesting take on how NPWS is playing out after the past volume surge. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (NPWS) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!
FREE Trend Analysis for NPWS Here
- State Street receives Wells Notice, may be sued by SEC over securities-law violations (Bloomberg and Reuters)
- GE’s Immelt claims crisis over, see only growth from now on, sweeps tens of billions of failed GECC “investments” under the rug (Bloomberg)
- And another permabull talks his book, sees more procyclicality, has no factual justification (Bloomberg)
- Central banks: the visible hand at work (Brown Brothers Harriman)
- As we announced, Porsche rejects Volkswagen offer (WSJ)
- As government chimes in: the two need to agree soon (Reuters)
- Why stagflation is coming (Reuters)
- Sears to let jobless customers stop payments, keep the fridge (Bloomberg)
- Weekly economic report (Hudson Institute)
- Oil rises to $70 on more Nigeria attacks, of course it is all inflation-related, no June 2008 deja vu yet (Reuters)
- Bernanke breaks means reappointment is assured (Bloomberg)
- Why we need a second stimulus (New Republic)
- Looking ahead into the economic dark (National Post)
At the end of each quarter, I like to see how the market has performed in comparison to the last quarter. Seeing as we are nearing the end of Q2 of 2009, we are starting to crunch the numbers.
So here goes:
Data for the end of Q2 is based on intra-day prices traded on Friday the 26th, of June.
Last quarter gold (XAUUSDO) closed at 921.06 bases the spot market. As of today we are trading around 939.70, that’s a move of 2.3% over last quarter. Clearly this market continues to move higher on a quarterly basis.
Dow (DJI) closed at 7608.92 last quarter and as of today we’re around 8413.15, that’s a positive gain of 10.56% for the quarter.
Last quarter the S&P 500 (INX) closed at 797.87. Presently we are trading around 914.64. That’s a 14.63% gain over last quarter.
NASDAQ (COMP) closed at 1519.96 last quarter and is currently trading at 1826.44. That’s a gain of 20.16% for the quarter.
Crude Oil (NYMEX_CL), closed last quarter at 53.82 basis the August contract. Currently we’re trading at 69.30 that’s a gain of 28.76% for the quarter.
Last quarter the Dollar Index (DX) closed at 85.43. Presently we are trading at 79.82, that’s a loss of 6.48% for the quarter.
So there you have it. The exact changes for the quarter (of course we will only find out on Tuesday as we close out Q2). I think is a pretty fair bet to say that the stock market and crude oil should close higher for the quarter.
The only two markets that are questionable right now are gold (which is up 2.03% as of this writing) and the dollar index (which is down 6.48%). We could see these two markets continuing this trend in Q3; higher gold and a lower dollar.
As always, we will be using MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology to capture as much of these moves as we can. As I said at the beginning of this blog, I like to look at the quarterly charts because they show you the bigger picture and a greater sense of the major trends.
I highly recommend that you incorporate reviewing the quarterly charts and using them in your own trading and strategy models. I believe that they will help you enormously in the future. Test out Market Club’s Technology for 30 days FREE just Click Here
Every success,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
- Breaking news: Military coup in Honduras, President Manuel Zelaya deposed (Sky News)
- Louis Gerstner criticizes choice of Steve Rattner for auto task force czar (Bloomberg)
- Plunge in Dubai biggest property developer Emaar leads to index collapse (Bloomberg)
- Porsche rejects Volkswagen ultimatum, hope you loaded up on CDS (Marketwatch)
- GM to cover future product-liability claims (WSJ) [Yet the Supreme Court had no qualms overruling an objection in the Chrysler sale based on just this issue.]
- The collapse of residential real estate in China (Reuters, h/t Steven)
- Novartis in talks to buy Elan (Reuters)
- Iran arrests British embassy employees over UK protests (Bloomberg)
- Four Seasons: the quandary of ultra luxury caught in a depression (NYT) Delinquencies on US Auto-backed securities jump 22% (Research Recap) 7 habits of highly suspicious hedge funds (Rick Bookstabber)
- Most expensive real estate markets in the world: follow the commodity bubble (Infectious Greed)
- First Nigaz, now Bengaz (Bloomberg)
- Investor Sentiment: Summer Doldrums (Technical Take)
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Market Club has a very interesting take on how PAYD is playing out after the past volume surge. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (PAYD) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!
FREE Trend Analysis for PAYD Here
Economic Data for the week ahead
Monday
10:30 a.m. June Dallas Fed Mfg. Production Index
Tuesday
7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index for June 27
8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index for June 27
9:00 a.m. April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:45 a.m. June Chicago PMI
10:00 a.m. June Conference Board Consumer Confidence
5:00 p.m. ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence for June 27
Wednesday
7:00 a.m. June 26 Mortgage Refinance Application Survey
8:15 a.m. June ADP National Employment Report
10:00 a.m. June ISM Mfg Index
10:00 a.m. June Construction Spending
10:00 a.m. May Pending Home Sales
10:30 a.m. Jun 26 U.S. Energy Dept. Oil Inventories
Thursday
8:30 a.m. June 27 Weekly Jobless Claims
8:30 a.m. June Non-Farm Payrolls
8:30 a.m. June Unemployment Rate
10:00 a.m. June 20 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer
10:00 a.m. May Factory Orders
10:30 a.m. June 19 EIA Natural Gas Inventories
4:30 p.m. June 22 Money Supply
Friday
No economic events are scheduled for today.
From Floyd Norris at the NY Times: How Bad Is the Recession? Check New Home Sales
… For more than three decades, the sales volume of existing single-family homes and newly built houses tended to rise and fall by about the same percentage, as can be seen in the accompanying charts. To be sure, sales of new homes did tend to do a little worse during recessions, but the difference was small and short-lived.
…
At the peak of the housing boom in 2005, sales of both existing and new homes were running at twice the 1976 rate. This year, the sales rate for existing homes seems to have stabilized at about one-third higher than the 1976 rate. New-home sales also seem to have stabilized, but at about half the 1976 rate.
Excerpt from the New York Times.
Click on graph for NY Times Graphic.
Norris doesn’t mention that the gap between the two series is a result of the extraordinary number of distressed existing home sales. This has pushed down new home sales (the builders can’t compete with REO prices), and is keeping existing home sales elevated.
For more, see: Distressing Gap: Ratio of Existing to New Home Sales
I also linked to this post by Professor Brian Peterson earlier this week (including some thoughts prices): House Prices and New versus Existing Homes Sales
Bloomberg: JPMorgan, Citigroup Expand in ‘Jumbo’ Home Mortgages
JPMorgan resumed buying new jumbo loans made by other lenders this month, after halting purchases in March, spokesman Tom Kelly said. … Citigroup is again offering the loans through independent mortgage brokers, spokesman Mark Rodgers said.
…
New jumbo lending, which includes refinancing as well as debt for home buyers, totaled $348 billion in 2007, before dropping to $98 billion last year as mortgage companies tightened standards, according to newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance. Jumbo lending slowed in the fourth quarter to $11 billion, or 4 percent of the mortgage market, the lowest quarterly amount since Inside Mortgage Finance started tracking that data in 1990.
…
Bank of America Corp. was the largest jumbo lender in the first quarter, with almost $9 billion in new loans, followed by Citigroup …More than 7 percent of prime-jumbo loans backing securities sold in 2006 and 2007 were at least 90 days late, Standard & Poor’s said yesterday.
This will help a little!!
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