Archive for July, 2009


The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extends this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer’s decline crossing at 1635.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1489.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 1609.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1635.44. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1541.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1489.50.up-arrow3

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The September S&P 500 index closed higher on Monday as it extends this month’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 919.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 983.70. Second resistance is 38% retracement level crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 947.92. Second support is the 20- day moving average crossing at 919.89.

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The Dow closed higher on Monday as it extends last week’s breakout above June’s high crossing at 8877. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month’s rally, last November’s high crossing at 9653 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8571 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 9123. Second resistance is last November’s high crossing at 9653. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8833. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8571.


economists-predict-recession-ends-this

Zero Hedge, in collaboration with David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates, Inc., is pleased to release the attached analysis “The End Of The End Of The Recession.” It is our hope that this piece will provide some badly-needed perspective on “the recession is over” debate, a topic that has become as one-sided as it is wrong-headed. Our purposes is to promote rational, informed discourse on the subject and to this end we enthusiastically solicit reader feedback. Our presentation is licensed “creative commons: attribution” and we hope that our readers will feel free to forward it on or excerpt from it freely, provided attribution is preserved.

The End of the End of the Recession


US Pay Czar To Rework Contracts Deemed High (WSJ)
Speaking of! Technically, Feinberg can’t rip up anyone’s contract, but he can apply pressure to their employer to do so, and, if that doesn’t work, can do stuff like subtract whatever they’re getting for a bonus from their base pay and/or next year’s pay.

High-Frequency Trading Faces Challenge as Schumer Presses SEC
(Bloomberg)
Chucky wants it banned: “This kind of unfair access seriously compromises the integrity of our markets and creates a two-tiered system, where a privileged group of insiders receives preferential treatment,” Schumer wrote. “If allowed to continue, these practices will undermine the confidence of ordinary investors, and drive them away from our capital markets.”

The Great Preventer, by Nouriel Roubini (NYT)
Dr. Doom endorses The Beard: “Mr. Bernanke deserves to be reappointed so that he can manage the Fed’s exit from its most radical economic intervention since its creation in 1913.”

Ryanair Stock Drops on Outlook for Fares, Earnings
(Bloomberg)
Sounds like it’s time to implement O’Leary’s revolutionary idea.

Kuwait Financier Facing U.S. Fraud Suit Found Dead (Reuters)
Hazem Al-Braikan, chief executive of Al Raya Investment, believed to have shot himself.

Citi ‘milestone’ as Washington takes 34% stake (FT)
Vikram is apparently super excited about the bank’s newfound “financial strength.”

Citi Shares May Rebound, Could Double By 2012 (Reuters)
Don’t get too excited: “the bank will be ‘hard-pressed’ to approach $10 in coming years,” but beggars can’t be choosers and over five bucks would be nice!

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Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This is the biggest week of the quarter in terms of earnings.  29% of the S&P 500 will be reporting and 750 companies in total report.  The docket is loaded with energy and materials firms.   Adding to this is a heavy slate of economic news:

  • Monday: New home sales
  • Tuesday: July Conference Board Consumer Confidence, S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index
  • Wednesday: June durable goods orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book, weekly crude inventories
  • Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
  • Friday: Advance Q2 GDP, July Chicago PMI

The government is auctioning off an incredible $115B in short-term notes next week.  This could create the risk of higher yields and a skittish stock market.  At some point the demand for bonds is going wane and  yields are going to spike.

The risks in this market are rapidly increasing.  There is a deep feeling of complacency in the market.  The latest AAII sentiment reading came in at 38 – a fairly neutral reading, but up substantially in the last two weeks.  Meanwhile the recent rally has been on very low volume and very questionable fundamentals:

bberg

The rapid decline in the VIX and Yen also have me feeling a bit uneasy about the current move.  The majority of the strong tech firms and banks have released earnings.  Now we’re moving into the real economy names – energy, materials and consumer related names.  I don’t expect the news to be nearly as good as we get deeper into the earnings season.  We’re also moving into a seasonal period that is very weak for the stock market.  Investors always try to anticipate the scary month of October by getting out in September.  We could see a repeat this year, especially considering the disaster we saw last year.  This is a fast moving market.  I’ll adapt with it, but for now, I am standing pat on my bullish stance with the expectation of short sellers capitulating at some point in the next week or so.  That will be your chance to move to a neutral position or get short.  Stay tuned.


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by CalculatedRisk

New Home sales for June are scheduled to be released on Monday morning by the Census Bureau. The consensus forecast is for 350 thousand sales on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis, up slightly from the 342 thousand SAAR in May.

Since we already have the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) through July and single family housing starts through June – and since both series have increased recently – I thought it might be interesting to compare all three series.

New Home Sales Correlation Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with new home sales and single family housing starts (right scale).

Both the new home sales and single family starts series are very noisy (month-to-month variability is high), so it is hard to use starts to predict sales on a monthly basis. However this does suggest a possible increase in sales over the next few months.

When comparing the HMI to single family starts, r-squared is 0.60.

For HMI to new home sales, r-squared is 0.42.

For single family starts to new home sales, r-squared is 0.85 (pretty high).

It looks like builder optimism (as measured by the HMI) is a little more related to building than selling. (Just a joke). Continue Reading


Courtesy of MISH

Luxury hotels are defaulting on their loans as the economy kills off business travel. But what is ailing the hotel industry is good for consumers as room rates fall.

CNNMoney tells the story of 8 foreclosed luxury hotels in Foreclosure Inn.

Here are a few of my favorites. Please click on the link to see them all.

W Hotel San Diego

Location: Downtown San Diego
Stars: 3
Labor Day Weekend rate $153

An early California satellite of the New York City-based chain that caters to affluent hipsters, the “W” quickly became a chic gathering spot. It’s just a few blocks from the harbor and near the Gaslight Quarter and it numerous clubs, bars and restaurants.

Default: The owner, Sunstone Hotel Investors, announced in June that it would default on a payment on its $65 million loan and would let the property be repossessed by its lender. Declines in both business and holiday travel cut into room rates and pushed down occupancy and the property is now worth less than its debt, according to Sunstone’s CFO. It continues to take in guests and operate normally.
St. Regis Monarch Beach Resort

Location: Orange County, Calif.
Stars: 5
Labor Day Weekend rate: $478

If you want to feel like an upper management type on a corporate junket after the company has accepted a multimillion-dollar government bailout, try this ultra-luxury resort. After all, it’s where AIG spent $440,000 on a corporate retreat a week after the Federal Reserve gave the company an emergency $85 billion loan.

Default: The owners defaulted on their $70 million loan to CitiGroup and voluntarily transferred their interests to the bank this week, according to a spokeswoman for Starwood Hotels & Resorts, which runs the hotel. The spokeswoman said the default has not affected operations and it continues to be business as usual there.

The Ritz-Carlton Kapalua

Location: Maui, Hawaii
Stars: 4
Labor Day Weekend rate: $299

This slice of the American Paradise forms part of a 23,000-acre pineapple plantation. There’s plenty to do here with two golf courses, a triple-tiered swimming pool and ocean beaches. There’s also great pampering in the 14,000-square-foot spa with 15 private rooms.

The hotel went through a recent renovation that left rooms with new marble baths, native Hawaiian paintings and other decorations and spacious lanais. There’s also a new fitness center with yoga and Pacific views.

Default: The majority owners, an investment group headed up by Goldman Sachs and Gencom, defaulted on a $260 million loan in April, but the Ritz-Carlton, a division of Marriot, continues to run the inn.

The Wigwam Resort

Location: Litchfield Park, Ariz.
Stars: 3
Labor Day Weekend rate: $79

The Wigwam opened in 1929, and the grounds remain lovely, with meandering pathways and desert-scapes of saguaro and other cacti, palm trees and cottonwoods. The sunny Arizona weather enables guests to enjoy great golfing with 54 championship holes. There are also nine tennis courts, and two pools with water slides.

The resort lies in a northwestern suburb of Phoenix well away from the hustle of the city. But a glut of hotel rooms in the Phoenix area and a drop in pricing have hurt the Wigwam’s profits.

Default: The resort was set to be auctioned off in early July, but the action was postponed after the owners filed for bankruptcy. The case is now before a court and the parties may try to negotiate a settlement on the $65 million debt.

No Bids For Watergate Hotel

Inquiring minds and history buffs like are reading D.C.’s Watergate Hotel draws no bids at foreclosure auction

The Watergate Hotel, the iconic property synonymous with the downfall of President Richard Nixon, failed to attract any bids when it was auctioned Tuesday.

Joseph Cooper, who wielded the gavel, seemed surprised when there was silence after the auction opened at $25 million.

“It’s a Washington landmark,” said Cooper, the president of Alex Cooper Auctioneers, after calling the bid a few times.

“It’s a national landmark, really,” he told the crowd. The June 17, 1972, burglary of Democratic National Committee headquarters at the complex was at the center of the scandal that would lead to Nixon’s resignation two years later.

Big-name Washingtonians such as Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, former Senate leader Bob Dole and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have been residents of the complex. So was Monica Lewinsky, the other woman in the Bill Clinton impeachment scandal, who lived with her mother next door to Dole.

In the end, New York-based PB Capital Corp., which had lent previous owner Monument Realty $40 million for the property, agreed to take the hotel for $25 million.

Hotel Foreclosures Soar In California

CoStar is reporting California Hotel Foreclosures Double in Last Three Months.

From Watch List reader, Alan X. Reay, founder and president of Atlas Hospitality Group in Irvine, CA, comes this astounding statistic. The number of California hotels in default or foreclosed on has jumped 125% in the last 60 days. The state now has 31 hotels that have been foreclosed on and 175 in default.

“Initially, the wave of distress in California was seen by the smaller, non-flagged hotels in secondary and tertiary markets,” Reay said. “As the hotel economy worsened, we have seen it impact all property types.The properties range from the luxurious St. Regis Monarch Beach Resort in Dana Point to the more economical Extended Stay and Red Roof Inn chains. No market or brand is immune in this downturn.”

“In reviewing the hotels in default or foreclosed on, we found that over 75% of the loans originated from 2005 to 2007. During this period, over 2,500 California hotels either refinanced or obtained new purchase loan financing,” Reay added. “Unfortunately, based on today’s market values, we estimate that none of these hotels have any equity remaining.”

Hotel hell is just beginning as consumers and corporations alike remain in belt-tightening mode, and no recovery in jobs is on the horizon.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


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