Courtesy of Zero Hedge

This is so much more than just a short covering rally. Oh wait, it’s not. 72.19% drop in Short Interest across securities, compliments of stock loan-cum-TARP bailout recipients. So you see, if you are a taxpayer, who believes that fundamentals are more critical than an artificially inflated market compliments of the biggest, most orchestrated short squeeze in history, you got Got by the same people you bailed out.

Update: Apparently Bberg had not completed filling its data at time of posting. We apologize for Bloomberg not having the perspicacity and alacrity of a 10 million SPARC turbo cluster. The end result: 21.05 billion shares short at 1.72% of float. The odd discrepancy is the increase in short-interest on NYSE-issued securities. Any readers who have an idea what is going on here, please chime in.

Nonetheless, below is the trend chart for the % of float as most recently reported by Bloomberg. If this data changes in 24 hours, an update will be posted.



Zero Hedge recently has some choice words against a subset of HFT, namely Flash Trading, and as even Irene Aldridge confirmed earlier, there is something very wrong with this critical component of program trading. It seems our admonitions have not fallen on deaf ears. In a startling development of anti-establishmentarian activism, Senator Charles Schumer has asked the SEC to ban Flash Trading in its entirety, as it “gives high-speed traders an unfair advantage over other investors.”

From Bloomberg:

Senator Charles Schumer asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to ban “flash orders,” saying the transactions give high-speed traders an unfair advantage over other investors.

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., Bats Exchange Inc. and Direct Edge Holdings Inc. hold these orders for milliseconds, giving their customers the opportunity to gauge demand before traders on other exchanges get the chance to bid, Schumer said in a letter to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro. Brian Fallon, a spokesman at Schumer’s office, confirmed the authenticity of the letter.

“Flash orders allow certain members of these exchanges to obtain access to order flow information before that information is made available to the public,” Schumer wrote. That allows “those members to use rapid trading programs to trade ahead of those orders and profit from advanced knowledge of buying and selling activity,” he added.

The implications of this development are immense: if politicians are willing to take a major chunk of out exchanges’ primary revenue streams, one may even hope that they won’t stop there but will in fact continue much higher in the food chain and start investigating the perpetrators of real market malfeasance.

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The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it extends this month’s rally above the 50% retracement level of last summer’s decline crossing at 1522.75. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer’s decline crossing at 1635.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1483.35 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 1603.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1635.44. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1525.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1483.35.

4 FREE Market Video’s Here

The September S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday extending this week’s rally above resistance marked by June’s high crossing at 952.50. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 916.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 976.50. Second resistance is 38% retracement level crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 939.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 916.73.

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The Dow closed higher on Friday as it extends this week’s breakout above June’s high crossing at 8877. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month’s rally, last November’s high crossing at 9653 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8537 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 9096. Second resistance is last November’s high crossing at 9653. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8754. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8536.

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Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

A great 17 minute interview with David Rosenberg here on Bloomberg Surveillance.  Rosenberg talks about everything from baseball to the likelihood of a 2002 like collapse in the stock market.  It’s an audio file so give it a minute to load.

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JPMorgan Said to Increase Some Investment Banker Salaries Starting in 2010 (Bloomberg)
“The plan, unveiled yesterday at a meeting with investment bank co-heads Steven Black and William Winters, affects those who earn half or more of their total compensation in year-end bonuses, the person said, declining to be identified because pay matters are confidential. It will be implemented in 2010 and details will be announced closer to the end of this year. The salary increase doesn’t change total pay.”

Fortress Plans Buying Spree (FT)
Wes Edens has a message for any hedge funds that haven’t made back last year’s losses by the end of ’09: “It’s all over for you,” so you might as well turn over the keys to the place now.

Citigroup Board Names Three New Outside Directors (C)
Vikula welcomes (Mike Bloomberg gal-pal) Diana Taylor, Timothy Collins, and Robert L. Joss.

Calpers Hopes Riskier Bets Will Restore Its Health (NYT)
The fund’s new head of investments aims to sink a few billion into “beaten-down private equity and hedge funds. Junk bonds and California real estate also ride high on his list. And then there are timber, commodities and infrastructure.”

Blindsided By Bear, Mr. Miller Sees Bull (WSJ)
In a quarterly report to fund shareholders, Mr. Miller said that a new bull market is under way and that technology and financial-services stocks would be among its leaders.

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By: Brandon Rowley of Trading Wall Street Investments

Apple

Apple may just be the best company in the country. The US recession drags on but someone might want to tell Apple with shares now trading just 22% off the all-time highs having rallied over 100% in the last six months. Apple continues to run on all cylinders racking up a whopping 626% increase in iPhone shipments in the third quarter even while increasing gross margins 2.5%.

Long did many investors doubt the ability of Apple management, and long did many investors miss a great opportunity. Much of Apple’s success can be attributed to a little-known man by the name of Jonathan Ive, the principal designer of the iMac, MacBook, iPod and iPhone. Ive, working in collaboration with the brilliant Steve Jobs, created three major products with excellent features and aesthetic appeal.

The company, nearing bankruptcy in the mid-90s, reinvented itself with the iMac in 1998 returning the company to profitability after five long years of red ink. Then, out of nowhere, Apple introduced the iPod in 2001 and went on to dominate the portable music player market. Most recently, Apple wowed us again introducing the iPhone in 2007 quickly stealing market share from much more entrenched rivals.

Apple’s management goes further than just creating great products, it knows the rules of stock market investors. Apple consistently under-promises and over-delivers, the exact posturing investors seek. The Jobs-Ive collaboration has proved incredibly effective and the company is worth a study in reinvention and bold management moves.

Starbucks

Shares of Starbucks are trading up an astounding 80.9% year-to-date trouncing the S&P’s 8.1% gain. For a company selling an unneeded, overpriced product, the recession has done very little to hurt its sales. Sales were reported down a minor 7.6% year-over-year, impressive given its high-end specialty products. Starbucks is now ubiquitous with 16,680 stores at the end of 2008.

The company has been notorious for its top-notch branding efforts. For years Starbucks never offered any sort of sale or promotion, never was a deal to be had. The company was simply committed to providing a consistent, quality product for a set price. The strict adherence to brand image has placed Starbucks far ahead of any of its competitors. And now, Starbucks is cashing in. For the first time, Starbucks has been offering deals to its customers to increase revenues. The new pairing deals offer a reasonably-priced breakfast option while the current promotion at select stores reducing prices for repeated business in a single day will likely drive traffic higher. Starbucks is finally taking advantage of its image to maintain revenue stability throughout a tough recessionary time.


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By Jeffrey Kennedy

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection. Now through August 10, Elliott Wave International is offering a special 45-page Best Of Trader’s Classroom eBook, free.

———–

Aspiring traders typically go through three phases in this order:

Methodology. The first phase is that all-too-familiar quest for the Holy Grail – a trading system that never fails. After spending thousands of dollars on books, seminars and trading systems, the aspiring trader eventually realizes that no such system exists.

Money Management. So, after getting frustrated with wasting time and money, the up-and-coming trader begins to understand the need for money management, risking only a small percentage of a portfolio on a given trade versus too large a bet.

Psychology. The third phase is realizing how important psychology is – not only personal psychology but also the psychology of crowds.

But it would be better to go through these phases in the opposite direction. I actually read of this idea in a magazine a few months ago but, for the life of me, can’t find the article. Even so, with a measly 15 years of experience under my belt and an expensive Ph.D. from S.H.K. University (i.e., School of Hard Knocks), I wholeheartedly agree. Aspiring traders should begin their journey at phase three and work backward.

I believe the first step in becoming a consistently successful trader is to understand how psychology plays out in your own make-up and in the way the crowd reacts to changes in the markets. The reason for this is that a trader must realize that once he or she makes a trade, logic no longer applies. This is because the emotions of fear and greed take precedence – fear of losing money and greed for more money.

Once the aspiring trader understands this psychology, it’s easier to understand why it’s important to have a defined investment methodology and, more importantly, the discipline to follow it. New traders must realize that once they join a crowd, they lose their individuality. Worse yet, crowd psychology impairs their judgment, because crowds are wrong more often than not, typically selling at market bottoms and buying at market tops.

Moving onto phase two, after the aspiring trader understands a bit of psychology, he or she can focus on money management. Money management is an important subject and deserves much more than just a few sentences. Even so, there are two issues that I believe are critical to grasp: (1) risk in terms of individual trades and (2) risk as a percentage of account size.

When sizing up a trading opportunity, the rule-of-thumb I go by is 3:1. That is, if my risk on a given trading opportunity is $500, then the profit objective for that trade should equal $1,500, or more. With regard to risk as a percentage of account size, I’m more than comfortable utilizing the same guidelines that many professional money managers use – 1%-3% of the account per position. If your trading account is $100,000, then you should risk no more than $3,000 on a single position. Following this guideline not only helps to contain losses if one’s trade decision is incorrect, but it also insures longevity. It’s one thing to have a winning quarter; the real trick is to have a winning quarter next year and the year after.

When aspiring traders grasp the importance of psychology and money management, they should then move to phase three – determining their methodology, a defined and unwavering way of examining price action. I principally use the Wave Principle as my methodology. However, wave analysis certainly isn’t the only way to view price action. One can choose candlestick charts, Dow Theory, cycles, etc. My best advice in this realm is that whatever you choose to use, it should be simple. In fact, it should be simple enough to put on the back of a business card, because, like an appliance, the fewer parts it has, the less likely it is to break down.

For more trading lessons from Jeffrey Kennedy, visit Elliott Wave International to download the Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook. It’s free until August 10.

“How high can gold rise? Last July I suggested that $2,000 an ounce on a two to three-year view was possible, as this would bring gold back up to its historical peak in real terms (constant dollars) last seen in 1980. This could now turn out to be a substantial underestimate as the stage is now set for gold to rise to $3,000 an ounce or higher as a wave of freshly printed liquidity sparks a renewed global surge into the only asset that investors will trust in these circumstances, writes Ian Williams, Chairman of Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers in Telegraph. [Ian is one of 75 experts who all agree "Gold's Future is Bright!"]

* “The IMF is now on the verge of taking a big leap towards a new currency system, with a proposal to increase the supply of SDRs by eightfold (special drawing rights, are basically a bundle of several currencies including the dollar, yen, sterling, and the euro). The IMF will vote on the measure August 7th and would start issuing the new currency by the end of the month. If it passes, this would be the first time the IMF would have increased the number of SDRs since 1981 – a pretty substantial shift. The world is taking a big step away from the dollar as the de-facto global reserve currency,” reports Newsweek.

* “President Obama showed great fluency in the intricate details of health policy at his news conference on Wednesday night, but experts said some of his points were debatable. Mr. Obama said doctors, nurses, hospitals, drug companies and AARP had supported efforts to overhaul health care. Far from supporting this proposal, the American Hospital Association is urging hospital executives to lobby against it,” reports NYtimes.

* Healthy debate: “A major legislative overhaul of U.S. healthcare seemed to be a sure thing just weeks ago, and some sort of change remains likely. But as details emerge and costs become apparent, industry groups and moderate Democrats are starting to balk. Conservatives argue that such a public plan threatens the existence of private insurers by creating an unlevel playing field where the government acts as both competitor and industry regulator. Studies show as many as two-thirds of customers may lose their private insurance as companies try to compete with the government,” reports Worldmag.

* “Health care is turning into a major test of Obama’s leadership. One Republican senator says if the party can stop Obama on health care, it will break him. ‘No one wants to tell the speaker (Nancy Pelosi) that she’s moving too fast and they damn sure don’t want to tell the president,’ said Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y.,” reports AP.

* “When Charles Hummel wrote his classic essay “The Tyranny of the Urgent,” in 1967, he identified the telephone as among the worst offenders against our peace and complacency. The issue, Hummel said, is not so much a shortage of time as a problem of priorities. Or, as a cotton mill manager once told him, “Your greatest danger is letting the urgent things crowd out the important,” reports ANS.

* “Stocks rallied Thursday as investors shrugged off a rise in jobless claims and focused on encouraging earnings from Ford and 3M. A third straight rise in home sales also buoyed the market, helping propel the DJIA above the 9,000 mark for the first time since January. Existing-home sales rose 0.3%, ” reports CNBC.

* “Another flood of earnings reports left major stock-market benchmarks mixed on Wednesday as bank stocks fell but some technology and consumer stocks rose. Financial stocks were mostly lower after a wave of quarterly reports from banks. Morgan Stanley dropped 5.1% after earnings dropped sharply,” reports WSJ.

* “This is nothing but a relief rally in a secular bear market and we’ll be in a secular bear market for another 10 to 15 years,” said David Hefty, principal of Cornerstone Wealth Management. “Right now, being bearish is nothing more than being realistic with what’s going on around us,” Hefty told CNBC.

(Marketwire – 07/22/09) – BioElectronics Corp. (Pinksheets:BIEL), the maker of inexpensive, disposable drug-free anti-inflammatory devices, today announced a conference call will be held at 11AM (EDT), Tuesday, July 28th to discuss the results of a clinical study recently completed under the direction of David G. Genecov, M.D. FACS FAAP and Joel Brook, DPM, MS, FACFAS. The management team will also provide its stakeholders with an update on corporate activities and information on the status of FDA filings.

Read Here

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US Files Indictment Against Danny Pang (WSJ)
Basically just a restating of previous charges which were that the PEMGroup, as Pang once told a colleague, is a scam. A spokesman for Mr. Pang, however, said the businessman “believes these charges are false and he looks forward to being vindicated at trial.”

Howard Marks: Stem Those Fees (NYP)
The Oaktree Capital Management founder has a problem with huge incentive fees. Only the best (like Oaktree) should be getting them. “Incentive fees on the order of what we’ve seen are a big deal and they should only go to extraordinary portfolio managers,” said Marks.

Credit Suisse Reports $1.5 Billion Profit (NYT)
Up 29 percent from year-on-year but down from the first quarter profit of 2 billion francs. Brady Dougan is confident the team can keep this up, and that the other Swiss bank in town will blow Toblerone bars when it reports on August 4.

Fannie & Freddie: The most expensive bailout (CNN Money)
“We’re assuming they each will cross the $100 billion mark fairly soon. They could be hitting the $200 billion barrier by the end of next year,” said Bose George, mortgage analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment bank specializing in financial services firms.

Hamptons Luxury Market Stalls With Four-Year Inventory Pileup (Bloomberg)
Only 37 homes above $2.37 million sold last quarter. Will no one step it up? How about this baby, any interest here? “The asking price for a 13,500-square-foot oceanfront home in Southampton Village with nine bedrooms, 11 bathrooms and a tennis court was reduced 25 percent in April to $60 million after sitting on the market for a year, and still hasn’t sold.”

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  • US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 18) W/W 554K vs. Exp. 557K (Prev. 522K, Rev. to 524K)
  • “If there’s a blue pill and a red pill, and the blue pill is half the price of the red pill and works just as well, why not pay half price for the thing that’s going to make you well?”- Obama (Washington Examiner)
  • Zero Intelligence trading closely mimics stock market (New Scientist)
  • Jonathan Weil: Accountants gain courage to stand up to bankers (Bloomberg)
  • Obama’s Fed Risk Regulator plan fading as lawmakers back council (Bloomberg)
  • Looks like that CIT bankruptcy will still happen after the soon to be failed bond exchange offer (Bloomberg)
  • Michael Milken, 60,000 deaths, and the story of Dendreon (Deep Capture)
  • Ford burns $1 billion, earns $2.3 billion, accountants everywhere highfiving on a job well done(WSJ)
  • NPR: Bin Laden’s son may have been killed by U.S. missile in Pakistan (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughts on U.S. personal consumption (David Malpass, Enicma Global)
  • Bond market leadership: what does that tell us (Green Faucet)
  • Howard Marks: stem those fees (NY Post)
  • Ignoring watchdog report, treasury gives three major banks sweetheart deals (HuffPo)
  • Wendelin Wiedeking gets €50 million departure gift for destroying Porsche (FT)
  • FINalternatives Survey: High-Frequency trading has a bright future (FINalt)
  • Fed’s exit strategy: a deft and fortunate fed (Global Commentary, Northern Trust)