Take a Look At DUG

Free Trend Analysis | Thursday 9 July 2009
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Michelle “Mish” Schneider over at Market Gauge has a great idea with Crude Oil dropping. Checkout her video here. Also Adam Hewison has some info regarding Crude.

After trading as high as $73 a barrel, crude oil began to buckle under pressure as the CFTC began to look into position limits that can be held by traders.

What’s happening now is giving speculation a bad name. Speculators form a very important task in assuming risk that is being transferred from either a producer or an end-user. Without this transfer of risk, which couldn’t take place without the speculator taking the other side of the trade, prices would be artificial at best. This approach has worked for hundreds of years and over a century here in the US.

Now back to crude oil… In the video you will see what has happened to crude oil in the last eight days. You will also see what Adam believes will be the area that crude oil will find support.

Click HERE to view Hewison’s video

For a FREE tour of Market Club including a Trend Analysis of your favorite stock try the RISK FREE 30 day trial here!

Wholesale: Sales Up, Inventories Down

Free Trend Analysis | Thursday 9 July 2009
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Courtesy of Jake’s Econompic Data

Reuters with the details:

U.S. wholesale inventories shrank for the ninth month in a row in May to $402.24 billion, their lowest level since August 2007, government data showed on Thursday.

The 0.8 percent drop was smaller than the 1.0 percent decline analysts polled by Reuters had expected. The Commerce Department also revised April’s fall to 1.3 percent from the 1.4 percent reported last month.

Sales at merchant wholesalers rose 0.2 percent, beating analysts’ expectations that they would be unchanged and pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio, a measure of how long it would take to deplete current stocks, down to 1.29 months’ worth from April’s 1.31 months. That was the lowest since a matching ratio in November.  [Click on charts for larger views.]

Wholesale Sales (not all good news, look at the drop in metals)
wholesale sales

Wholesale Inventories (Petroleum due to the jump in price)
wholesale inventories

Change in MoM Sales less Inventories

wholesale sales less inventories

Source: Census

Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline, Record Continuing Claims

Free Trend Analysis | Thursday 9 July 2009
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by CalculatedRisk

Note: The numbers are adjusted for the holiday, but this might still be an aberration.

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 565,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 617,000. The 4-week moving average was 606,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 616,000.
…
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 27 was 6,883,000, an increase of 159,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,724,000.

Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971.

Continued claims increased to a record 6.88 million.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 10,000, and is now 52,750 below the peak of 13 weeks ago. It appears that initial weekly claims have peaked for this cycle.

However the level of initial claims (over 600 thousand 4-week average) is still very high, indicating significant weakness in the job market.

As a reminder, when looking at this report, I’d focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims.

INO FREE Preview Week

Free Trend Analysis | Thursday 9 July 2009
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Former US Assistant Secretary Of The Treasaury “Geithner Works For Goldman”

Free Trend Analysis | Thursday 9 July 2009
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Max Keiser: “Does the US Secretary of the Treasury work for the people or does he work for the banking system on Wall Street?”

Dr. Paul Craig Reports: “He works for Goldman Sachs.”

Morning Market’s

Free Trend Analysis | Thursday 9 July 2009
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The NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week’s high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last week’s high, the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 1337.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1450.06 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1450.06. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1496.25. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1392.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1337.63. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 8.00 pts. at 1415.00 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s decline but remains below the 25% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 882.35. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

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If September extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 845.09 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 904.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. From a broader perspective, the September S&P index appears to be forming a broad head and shoulders top. Closes below 873.10 would confirm a downside breakout of neckline support thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 898.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 904.08. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 865.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 845.09. The September S&P 500 Index was up 7.70 pts. at 881.30 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

US Moves to Shackle Oil Speculators

Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 8 July 2009
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The solution to perceived market manipulation is overt market manipulation. That’s what federal regulators are saying with Tuesday’s announcement that they will consider curtailing “excessive speculation” in energy markets. The move comes in response to last year’s spike in oil prices, which soared to a record $145 a barrel a year ago next week and pushed gasoline prices above $4 at the pump in many parts of the country. Since the start of this year…..Complete Story

More Mortgage Fraud

Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 8 July 2009
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stop-mortgage-fraud

From CNN: 25 charged in $100 million mortgage fraud

The D.A.’s office said the following banks were ripped off over a four-year period, ending in April: Countrywide, New Century Bank, Saxon Bank, Greenpoint Bank, ABC Bank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and SunTrust. Some of the defendants were bank employees, according to the D.A.

“The conspirators caused the banks to front millions of dollars to finance purchases of the properties,” read a statement from the D.A.’s office. “They then walked away with most of the cash, leaving behind over-valued properties and worthless mortgage papers.”

The D.A.’s office described a “particularly brazen sham transaction” where one of the suspects, Stephen Martini, allegedly wrote up a bogus appraisal of $500,000 for a two-family home, but “in reality, the location was a vacant lot.”

Volume Alert – NPWS

Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 8 July 2009
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NPWS announced today that it has achieved yet another major breakthrough with the demonstration of an air based fuel cell for aerobic applications. This system, when fully developed, is expected to have higher energy density than any incumbent direct methanol anaerobic fuel cell available today, and could enable NEAH to pursue various additional consumer markets.

This product in my opinion will be mandatory worldwide. The price target with more news could reach the $30′s.

Market Club has a very interesting take on how NPWS is playing out after the past volume surge. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (NPWS) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!

For a FREE tour of Market Club including a Trend Analysis of your favorite stock try the RISK FREE 30 day trial here!

By The Numberz

Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 8 July 2009
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The NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it extends last week’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today’s close below support crossing at 1412.00 marked a downside breakout of this summer’s trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 1336.40 later this summer. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1453.65 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1453.65. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1496.25. First support is today’s low crossing at 1392.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 1336.40.

The S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday and below the reaction low crossing at 884.30 confirming a downside breakout of a broad head and shoulder’s top while opening the door for a larger-degree decline during July. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 845.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 906.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 901.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 906.62. First support is today’s low crossing at 865.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 845.09.

The Dow closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday’s close below the reaction low crossing at 8221 confirmed a breakout below neckline support of this summer’s head and shoulders top thereby opening the door for a seasonal decline into August.

If the Dow extends the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 7957 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8464 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8360. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8464. First support is today’s low crossing at 8087. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 7957.

smgreenarrow1Today’s Trade Triangle’s