Bernanke will need to buy a whole lot of MBS pretty soon or it will be really tough to spin the ongoing mortgage refi and origination collapse (especially with the GSE on the hook for 125% LTV) as green shoots.
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
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Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
The Fed statement is attached. Yields are spiking on the news while equities appear very confused directionally. As I mentioned before, I don’t think this statement changes much in terms of my market outlook. The one thing that we can conclude from this statement is that the Fed is not concerned about the reflation trade getting out of control any time soon. Although Bloomberg and CNBC are reporting that deflation has been taken off the table, I believe they are entirely wrong to read into this. If the Fed is planning to keep rates low for an “extended period of time” I can only read that as the Fed being concerned about continuing deflation risks.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090624a.htm
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
We are hearing several rumors of very positive news coming anytime. SPPI ran in A/H’s 6% after being up more than 11% on the day. below you see more analysis of Spectrum.
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:SPPI) which remains a mostly undiscovered stock from our BioMedReports FDA Calendar of Upcoming Events. The company is smack in the middle of a rare situation. The phenomenon? SPPI has not one but two late-stage drugs up for approval and both the drugs exhibit extremely good odds for approval. Last week, it looked like investors were ready to pounce on this stock but the recent losing streak of the overall market may have gotten in the way. That appears to be changing.
FREE Trend Analysis for SPPI Here
Market Club has a very interesting take on how SPPI is playing out after the past volume surge. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (SPPI) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!
As BioMedReports’ Justin Hall previously reported, SPPI is hoping for approval for their non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) radio-immunotherapeutic, Zevalin next week (July 2, 2009). With approval, SPPI plans to market Zevalin as first-line consolidation therapy for NHL. In doing so, SPPI expects to make this effective treatment available to a greater number of those suffering with the illness- an estimated 28,000 patients. Over the next 12 to 18 months, sales of Zevalin are highly likely to surge, which should translate into a big win for SPPI shareholders.
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
From Reuters: US credit card chargeoffs break new record – Moody’s
The U.S. monthly credit card chargeoff rate surpassed 10 percent and hit a sixth straight record high in May, Moody’s Investors Services said on Wednesday …
The chargeoff rate index — which measures credit card loans the banks do not expect to be repaid — rose to 10.62 percent in May from 9.97 percent in April.
“We expect the chargeoff rate index to continue to rise in the coming months but at a slower pace, as it peaks at around 12 percent in the second quarter of 2010,” Moody’s senior vice president William Black said in a statement.
Another month, another record.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Chase sees an increase in chargeoffs after raising the monthly minimum payment from 2% to 5% for some credit card users.
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
Shares of MTMC were up nearly 300% after the company received a big order from the US Dept of Navy. MTMC was then halted for news pending at 1:50pm.
PRNewswire/ — Mobile Armor, Inc., the technology leader in mobile data protection for the U.S. Government contracting with MTM Technologies, Inc., today announced that the company’s data security software has been selected by the U.S. Department of Navy to protect its data at rest. Under this enterprise-wide contract, Mobile Armor will provide its centralized policy management and data protection solutions. The agreement also includes maintenance, training and other support programs.
Market Club has a very interesting take on how MTMC is playing out after the past volume surge. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (MTMC) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!
FREE Trend Analysis for MTMC Here
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, MTMC scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
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+10 | Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average | |
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+15 | New 3 Day High on Wednesday | |
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+20 | Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average | |
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+25 | New 3 Week High, Week Ending June 27th | |
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+30 | New 3 Month High in June | |
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| +100 | Total Score | ||
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
Last night we had an interesting volume spike alert in the after-hours trading in shares of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM). It turns out that the spike was because the auditor’s report will no longer include the “Going Concern” note in its financial report. This is an obvious huge development, but what we wanted to look at is how much this really changes the operational situation and outlook for MGM Mirage.
This comes on the heels of restructuring and paring down where it could, but the biggest boost for the “going concern” lack of relevance is that MGM has raised north of $2.5 billion in new capital this year.
The company recently got the Las Vegas workers to agree to a new 5-year contract with no pay raises until June 1, 2010, a deal which covers over 2,000 workers in the culinary and bartenders union.
Analysts are still looking for a loss of -$0.30 EPS on total revenues of $5.99 billion for Fiscal-2009. The same estimates for 2010 are -$0.50 EPS on revenues of $5.91 billion. In this respect, the removal of any “going concern” is a help but not a savior.
There is at least one direct benefit to the going concern note being removed as far as its business operations. Those booking hotels in the future do not have to sweat it out whether or not their reservations will be honored if there would have been a bankruptcy. You never know which suppliers demand tighter terms of have looser terms, but there is also the notion that suppliers can’t demand stricter terms than normal because they have a worry of an imminent adverse impact to their receivables. There are many other scenarios that this removes, particularly over which funds and investment advisors that can or cannot own the stock.
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge
Jim Cramer was spot on with calling the housing bottom. Oh wait – he was dead wrong again about this as he is about everything else: downward prior revision and lower than expectations. At least he is consistent at batting 0: almost as good as someone batting 1000.
Free Trend Analysis | Wednesday 24 June 2009
SEATTLE — Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: CTIC) announced today that it has completed the submission of the New Drug Application (NDA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for pixantrone to treat relapsed or refractory, aggressive non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL). CTI requested priority review, which if granted could lead to an approval decision from the FDA in the fourth quarter of 2009. Pixantrone is currently available in Europe on a named-patient basis.
Market Club has a very interesting take on how CTIC is playing out after the past news release. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (CTIC) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!
FREE Trend Analysis for CTIC Here
Free Trend Analysis | Tuesday 23 June 2009
by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge
Strange day, with VWAP reversion ruling on no volume as has been the norm over the past 3 months.
Liquidity was so hard to come by that 2,000 bps TICK swings were almost a norm in the second half of the day, yet the SPY closed virtually unchanged.
Someone lit a fire under financial companies after the NYT leaked a rumor that UBS had arranged a deal with the DOJ which later ended up being false. Doesn’t matter: investors needed a leading sector and were happy to dump money into financials, on above average volume, with no fundamental reason.
2s10s gyrated wildly after the $40 billion 2 year auction which cleared at a 1.151% yield vs. a 1.202% expected, and closed practically unchanged.
The only notable divergence was the high beta underperfroamnce which lately seems to correlate highly with overall down days. IWM – SPY closed at the days lows.
Lastly, this is indeed the RIP for the green shoots. The ABC weekly Consumer Confidence Index is back to 2009 lows.
Free Trend Analysis | Tuesday 23 June 2009
Keep this ticker on your radar for Wednesday. Advanced Cell Technology is a great company and with Stem Cells staying HOT they can’t help but benefit. The sudden surge in volume suggests something is up and ACTC is showing signs of having the same pattern as some of the others that sky rocketed with news. Our price target is .45 near term and well over $1.00 longer term. We suggest accumulation mode at these levels.
Market Club has a very interesting take on how ACTC is playing out after the past volume surge. The “Trade Triangles” paint the picture. CLICK HERE and just enter the ticker (ACTC.PK) your name and e-mail address for the FREE No strings Attached Report sent realtime to your in-box!
FREE Trend Analysis for ACTC Here
Free Trend Analysis | Tuesday 23 June 2009
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